2023-03-17 · 2 min read · UFC/Mixed Martial Arts
Jai Herbert and Rafael Fiziev

Dolly Clew/Cage Warriors | Mirror UK

Flashback to two weeks ago. Riding high off my first appearance on Sports Tree, where I emphatically stated that there should be no perplexities that Valentina Shevchenko would run roughshod over Alexa Grasso. I put my money where my mouth was and put massive units on a parlay I brazenly claimed: “I could not miss!”
Jai Herbert by KO/TKO +350 1U
I do not believe that Herbert will have to worry about being taken down and controlled on the ground, which would be another area of weakness for him. I do not think this fight sees the cards, and I believe the KO prop for the contest is all but a certainty and would make for a decent parlay piece. Having said that, I tend to lean toward the underdog in these spots.
Herbert by KO/TKO is the play here.
Rafael Fiziev to Win by any KO, Submission or DQ – YES +130 1U
This fight has all the makings of an exciting battle. Granted, is there any other kind of fight for Justin Gaethje? When you fight in the fan-friendly style that Gaethje possesses, Father Time seems to come knocking a little bit sooner than otherwise. Gaethje’s chin has been compromised over time, which is why I think his best days are behind him.
Fiziev is fantastic at switching stances and packs a punch from either side. I believe that Fiziev likely gets him out of there by KO/TKO, but at +150 for the KO prop, give me the two other methods of victory (Submission or DQ) at +130 for peace of mind.
Leon Edwards Moneyline Finish Only +140 2U
Just yesterday, Leon Edwards shocked the world with his comeback victory in the 5th and decisive round of his late summer bout with the former champ Kamaru Usman. One thing to remember about that fight card was that it was in Salt Lake City, Utah, at elevation, and nearly every fighter on the card was gassing out. However, we can put a lot of stock in what happened in Round 1 of that fight.
The prevailing sentiment is that Leon won that round in dominant fashion and provided the one takedown that Usman has suffered in his illustrious career. I think that Kamaru Usman’s best path to victory here is to control the fight and win by decision. That is why this bet is so attractive to me. If anyone gets the KO, I believe it will be Edwards.
I do not think he will have the same gas tank issues that he had in the Usman fight at elevation and expect him to wear down Usman. We go back to the Nate Diaz fight, where the only time Edwards slowed down was in the 5th and final round. He has the gas tank to go the full five rounds, and with a raucous home crowd behind him, I expect him to either knock Usman out or lose by decision. I consider this bet to be very low-risk, and at +140, I will take it.
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By: Conner Rowntree


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