Right-hander Kyle Leahy gets the ball for the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday, and he squares off against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that might as well be allergic to right-handed pitching. Cincinnati sits near the basement in OPS, dead last in batting average, and they strike out more than a nerd at prom. Leahy, meanwhile, is rolling with a 4-0 record and a stellar 1.52 ERA over his last nine starts. Our model is all-in on him keeping the Reds’ bats quiet early, especially since Cincinnati has managed just a single run in two of their last three games and four of their last seven.

Implied Probability 61.54%

Sports Tree BMS 7.38

Sports Tree Probability 73.8%