NFL WEEK 18 INCENTIVES & BEST BETS
2025-12-30 · 5 min read · NFL/Football
NFL Players Will Be Chasing Incentives; Bettors Will Chase Their Props
The 2025 NFL season finale is upon us, and there are only a couple of games with playoff implications. NFL bettors and fans are looking for the best action this coming weekend. Here at Sports Tree, we've broken down the players with the most significant performance incentives entering Week 18 to help you both at the sportsbooks and scroll through the channels.
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Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers
A surprise bright spot in the Carolina Panthers' 2025 backfield, Rico Dowdle needs just seven more yards from scrimmage to hit a $1 million bonus for 1,350 total yards. There isn't much we can do with this information, but if you want a really chalky line for a parlay, there you go.
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Nick Chubb, RB, Houston Texans
Nick Chubb can bring home an extra $250,000 for gaining 600 rushing yards this season. The veteran RB hitting this incentive is improbable at best, especially in a game that the Houston Texans need to win if they want a shot at the AFC South crown. At 506 with one game remaining, Chubb needs 94 yards in the season finale against the Colts. Doable, yes. Probable and worth the investment of time and money, no.
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Hollywood Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Hollywood Brown is just a single touchdown shy of receiving a $750,000 bonus for six TDs on the season. Expect a lot of targets his way, whether they're catchable or not; we'll have to wait and see. Pending the value, this could be a half-unit individual prop bet, but this is by no means a lock or a parlay spot.
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Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen is six grabs away from 80 receptions and earning a bonus $750,000. In a game in which the Los Angeles Chargers could leapfrog the Houston Texans for the AFC's fifth seed, this game is essential, and Herbert may lean on his most reliable target to move the ball. Pending the line, this could be a fun value bet to lay half a unit… or more.
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Stefon Diggs, WR, New England Patriots
Stefon Diggs already cashed a $500,000 bonus with his 80th catch in Week 17. However, he has another $500K bonus on the table in week 18. Diggs needs just 30 more receiving yards to reach 1,000 yards on the campaign and secure the second $500,000. 30 yards is well within reach for Cardi B's baby daddy and is a great parlay builder.
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Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley is 87 scrimmage yards away from 1,500 all-purpose yards and a $250,000 bonus. Barkley will hit this milestone and is worth the over if you can tease his rushing and receiving line down to 90+ yards.
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Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
If the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday and win the AFC North, Veteran QB Aaron Rodgers would earn a $500,000 bonus. A Pittsburgh wild-card win would earn him another $600,000. A divisional round win would see Rodgers get another $750,000. That's a lot of cheese to help the retirement fund, and you bet Rodgers will be trying to make a career statement and make the postseason in his final campaign. Incentives aside, you can expect the best version of Aaron Rodgers under the Sunday Night Football lights.
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Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks
The NFC West title and NFC No.1 seed are on the line Saturday night when the Seattle Seahawks visit the San Francisco 49ers. For Sam Darnold, there is more to play for. The journeyman QB has had another stellar campaign and has put himself within striking distance of $2 million in incentives for Saturday's finale. Darnold needs 28 passing touchdowns, 4,000 passing yards, a 67.5% completion percentage and a passer rating of at least 100 to achieve his four separate $500,000 bonuses, respectively.
Heading into Week 18, Darnold needs three touchdown passes, 150 passing yards, a 0.3 completion percentage increase, and a 0.8 passer rating boost to secure all four bonuses. The 150 passing yards seem like a slam dunk; the rest, Darnold will have to fight for.
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Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be must-watch TV to kick off Week 18 on Saturday against the Carolina Panthers. Not only can Baker and the Bucs clinch the NFC South with a win, but Mayfield can also earn up $2.5 million in performance incentives. The Oklahoma product is set to earn a $500,000 bonus for finishing in the top 10 of the NFL or top five in the NFC in each of the following: passer rating (19th NFL, 12TH NFC), touchdown passes (7th in NFL, 4th in NFC), total passing yards (12th in the NFL, 5th in NFC), completion percentage (26th, NFL, 17th NFC) and yards per pass (28th NFL 14th NFC). Realistically, Baker has a shot at winning another division title and a million dollars if he throws the ball efficiently and decisively. Look to add his passing prop of 200+ yards to a parlay spot.
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Deebo Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders
Deebo Samuel is 93 receiving yards away from 800 yards and a $450,000 bonus. The speedy playmaker is also just a pair of TDs away from eight touchdowns and another $250,000 bonus.
By: Conner Rowntree
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