Our model is blushing after how hard it’s been fading the Jays lately, but can you blame it? The Rays are rolling out Shane McClanahan, who’s basically been the engine under Tampa Bay’s hood all season. He’s efficient, attacks hitters with a nasty slider and a heater that means business, and he’s got a knack for getting quick outs before flipping the switch to strikeout mode. He’s rocking a 2.60 ERA and just blanked the Jays for nearly six innings last time out. Tampa’s won seven of thier last 10 and has flat-out bullied Toronto this year, taking six of nine head-to-head meetings.

Meanwhile, Toronto is rolling the dice with Patrick Corbin, who’s been more of a liability than an asset this season. His command is all over the place, he’s serving up home runs like appetizers, and the Jays have lost four straight with him toeing the rubber. A 6.40 ERA over his last five? That’s not the kind of stat you want staring down the Rays’ red-hot bats.

Happy Paul Skenes Day to all who celebrate, and our model certainly does. Skenes is still one of the nastiest arms in the game, and we cashed in big on his total outs and strikeouts props last time out. Now he gets to tee off on the Rockies, who strike out more than a nervous teenager at prom, and the second-highest rate in baseball. The model is all-in on Skenes to dominate, but after his last masterpiece, the books have juiced his numbers to the moon. That’s why we’re playing the NRFI with his total outs and Ks prop. Even with the odds a little bloated, there’s still value here. Skenes gets a whiff-happy lineup, and Lorenzen has quietly owned the Pirates with a 2.67 ERA in 44 appearances. Both starters should keep the bats quiet early, and neither offence is exactly terrifying. This is a pitcher’s duel with plenty of upside, especially with Skenes ability to push late into games.

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