Jupiter Links started this second TGL season 0-2 and, after a disappointing inaugural season, they were beginning to look like the league's joke until something clicked, or they simply improved, and the stats back that up. Despite that slow start, Jupiter went on to lead the league in singles points won and co-led the league in singles holes won. They also ranked near the top in greens in regulation, short-putt efficiency, and have been more effective with the Hammer this season, winning 14 Hammers to LA’s 11. Those stats correlate to show that Jupiter Links have become more consistent, composed, and confident. While LA is the best triples team in the TGL, they aren’t bringing their best statistical TGL player out in Collin Morikawa and have a significant disadvantage at singles.

Max Homa has become one of the best singles players in the league, with seven singles points on the season. Homa is hitting 90% of his greens in regulation and is 100% scrambling on the year. In the opening match of the TGL finals, Homa will face Justin Rose. Rose is a consistent veteran who won’t give any holes away, but he also won’t win them, as evidenced by his lone point scored in singles this year. That’s not going to bode well against a Max Homa who is statistically improving each and every TGL appearance.

Speaking of guys who’ve figured out the sim, I give you Tom Kim. Statistically speaking, the best player in the TGL, Kim, is an x-factor. His exuberance and passion, matched against Tommy Fleetwood’s cool presence, should make for a fun contrast of styles. There is little doubt that Tommy Fleetwood is the more well-rounded golfer, but Tom Kim is a different animal in SoFi Arena. He’s hits the fairway at over an 83% clip, hits 75% of his greens in regulation and has yet to miss a putt from inside 5 feet this season. In a game of momentum, Tom Kim has the edge to hit the winning shot... again.

The third singles match features each team's weakest link; however, Kevin Kisner is a DAWG in TGL singles. Despite giving away strokes left and right in triples, when it comes to singles, this ain’t no hobby, as proven by Kisner’s five singles points won in just two matches played this year. In contrast, Sahith Theegala has played three matches and won just two singles points, while hitting only 55.6% of fairways and scrambling at just 50% this season.

The Model likes LA’s team play to give them an edge entering singles; however, that is where Jupiter outshines them in all three matches, and they’ve proven to be the team more in control of hammer situations. At +115, the value is on Jupiter Links to take the first match of the best-of-three final.

Best Bet: Jupiter Links +115

Implies Odds: 46.51%

BMS: 6.32

Win Probability: 63.2%

Edge: 16.69%