The Miami Dolphins are a sick joke against the pass. They sit last in the league in defensive dropback EPA, success rate, and completion percentage. They also rank second-to-last in QB rate against and surrender the seventh most yards per attempt.
Zay Flowers is bar none the Ravens top receiving option, and our Betting Model System (BMS) likes him to take advantage of this abysmal Dolphins secondary with his QB1 back under center. Lamar Jackson is back for Thursday, but with a nagging hamstring and a favourable passing matchup, he should look to throw now, more than ever. Flowers saw 19 targets over the last two weeks, and is primed to pop off with Jackson back. The Pro Bowl wideout racked up more than 70 receiving yards in four of his first five games this year, and he will eat with Jackson back under centre, especially in this match.

Zay Flowers Over 68.5 Receiving Yards -110

BMS: 7.01 - Win Probability: 70.1%