Talk Birdie To Me: The 153rd Open Championship Betting Guide
2025-07-16 · 5 min read · PGA Tour/Golf
Scottie Scheffler Primed To Win Another Major
The Open Championship returns to the stunning links of Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, a course renowned for its dramatic dunes, unrelenting winds, and rich history. As the world’s oldest major golf championship tees off, bettors are gearing up for a thrilling week of wagering opportunities. Royal Portrush, hosting The Open for only the third time, promises a stern test of skill, strategy, and nerve, with its challenging layout and unpredictable coastal weather. Whether you’re backing a seasoned major winner, a local hero, or a long-shot debutant, our guide breaks down the key factors, top contenders, and smartest betting strategies to help you navigate the odds and make informed picks for golf’s grandest stage.
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Keys to success at Royal Portrush:
Driving accuracy: Players can’t afford to miss fairways and end up in the fescue. They also need to avoid fairway bunkers, so pinpoint accuracy off the tee is required. A tee shot in the short stuff, or a hazard will either ensure a birdie opportunity or a struggle to save bogey.
Strokes gained on approach: We’re targeting precision over power in the 2025 Open Championship. Shane Lowry ran away with this tournament in 2019 due to his elite ball striking, and there are few courses on the globe where precise ball striking matters more.
At this pure links style course, we're favouring precision over power and a proven ability to gut out a win in unpredictable elements. With that, let’s breakdown the feild.
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Scottie Scheffler +550 To Win
It's hard to leave the World No. 1 off of any betting card heading into the 2025 Open Championship. The Texas product has 10 consecutive Top 10s and leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green by nearly a full stroke. On a course that demands meticulous ball striking, Scheffler's game sets up perfectly. He's also shown to be a force on links golf courses, fresh off a T8 at the Scottish Open and a career-best T7 at The Open last year.
It's hard to leave the World No. 1 off of any betting card heading into the 2025 Open Championship. The Texas product has 10 consecutive Top 10s and leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green by nearly a full stroke. On a course that demands meticulous ball striking, Scheffler's game sets up perfectly. He's also shown to be a force on links golf courses, fresh off a T8 at the Scottish Open and a career-best T7 at The Open last year.
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Tommy Fleetwood +2600 To Win, +110 Top 20
Tommy Fleetwood holds the record for the most top-10 finishes (42) without a victory on the PGA Tour, including six runner-up finishes — most notably, in 2019 when the Open was last at Royal Portrush. That year, Fleetwood was six strokes back from Shane Lowry but two clear of the rest of the field.
The Englishman thrives on this side of the pond with eight international wins. He ranks third on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, fourth in total strokes gained and ninth in strokes gained on approach. His precision may pay off in a major way this weekend.
Tommy Fleetwood holds the record for the most top-10 finishes (42) without a victory on the PGA Tour, including six runner-up finishes — most notably, in 2019 when the Open was last at Royal Portrush. That year, Fleetwood was six strokes back from Shane Lowry but two clear of the rest of the field.
The Englishman thrives on this side of the pond with eight international wins. He ranks third on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, fourth in total strokes gained and ninth in strokes gained on approach. His precision may pay off in a major way this weekend.
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Russell Henley Top 20 +210
Russell Henley has been one of the least active golfers on TOUR this summer, but the strategy of quality over quantity is working for the American. He's played just three events since the PGA Championship, with a T5 at the Memorial, T10 at the US Open, and T2 at the Travelers. Mix in a solo 5th at The Open last year, and there's plenty of reason to back the Georgia Bulldog this week. The World No. 5 ranks 5th in Total Strokes Gained on Tour. He's also deadly accurate off the tee and has an elite short game, both of which should benefit him at Royal Portrush.
Russell Henley has been one of the least active golfers on TOUR this summer, but the strategy of quality over quantity is working for the American. He's played just three events since the PGA Championship, with a T5 at the Memorial, T10 at the US Open, and T2 at the Travelers. Mix in a solo 5th at The Open last year, and there's plenty of reason to back the Georgia Bulldog this week. The World No. 5 ranks 5th in Total Strokes Gained on Tour. He's also deadly accurate off the tee and has an elite short game, both of which should benefit him at Royal Portrush.
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Jon Rahm Top 10 +130, Top LIV Player +200
Jon Rahm is always a force at The Open. He's finished T7 or better in each of the past two iterations of this event, and He's in great form, finishing in the top 14 in all three majors this season with a pair of top eights. With his ability to turn it on at any moment and comfort on links courses, look for Rahmbo to be the top LIV player at this year's Open Championship.
Jon Rahm is always a force at The Open. He's finished T7 or better in each of the past two iterations of this event, and He's in great form, finishing in the top 14 in all three majors this season with a pair of top eights. With his ability to turn it on at any moment and comfort on links courses, look for Rahmbo to be the top LIV player at this year's Open Championship.
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Sepp Straka Top 20 +200
Sepp Straka's ball striking sets up perfectly for Royal Portrush. He ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total and 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which, if you've been reading this article, is precisely what we're looking for. There is little doubt he will make the cut and be lurking come Sunday.
Sepp Straka's ball striking sets up perfectly for Royal Portrush. He ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total and 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which, if you've been reading this article, is precisely what we're looking for. There is little doubt he will make the cut and be lurking come Sunday.
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Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20 +200
Matt Fitzpatrick is back. While it may be too early to make that claim officially, mark our words; he's coming into this year's rendition of the Open Championship with swagger. The Englishman saw a spark with a T8 at the PGA Championship, his first top-10 payday of 2025 on TOUR. He now enters this week with seven consecutive made cuts and is on a hot streak over his past three appearances, finishing T17, T8, and T4 last week. Look out for the former US Open Champion to make a push this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick is back. While it may be too early to make that claim officially, mark our words; he's coming into this year's rendition of the Open Championship with swagger. The Englishman saw a spark with a T8 at the PGA Championship, his first top-10 payday of 2025 on TOUR. He now enters this week with seven consecutive made cuts and is on a hot streak over his past three appearances, finishing T17, T8, and T4 last week. Look out for the former US Open Champion to make a push this week.
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Kristoffer Reitan To Make Cut -120
Our dark horse for the 153rd Open Championship
is Norwegian phenom, Kristoffer Reitan. If you haven't heard of him, you will. The 27-year-old has been nothing short of sensational over the past six weeks on the DP World Tour. Over that time, the Texas Longhorn product has won at the Soudal Open, a T2, a T4, and two T13 results. Last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, he ranked ninth in SG: Tee to Green and was fourth in Proximity, finishing T13.
Our dark horse for the 153rd Open Championship
is Norwegian phenom, Kristoffer Reitan. If you haven't heard of him, you will. The 27-year-old has been nothing short of sensational over the past six weeks on the DP World Tour. Over that time, the Texas Longhorn product has won at the Soudal Open, a T2, a T4, and two T13 results. Last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, he ranked ninth in SG: Tee to Green and was fourth in Proximity, finishing T13.
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For our official bets and risk analysis, please click here to access our betting model.
By: Conner Rowntree
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